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DC releases ten major forecasts of China's PC market in 2018

Beijing, January 8, 2018 - 2017, China's PC market is like a roller coaster. It experienced 10.6% decline in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in the second quarter of 2017. It also experienced the fourth quarter of 2017. It is expected to become the first 20 PC growth in China in the past 20 quarters. IDC China's "PC market monthly tracking report" preliminary data show that in 2017, China's PC market sales of about 53 million 600 thousand units, a year-on-year decline of 4.1%. China's PC market seems to be in an uncertain situation in 2017, as the global PC market has gradually rebounded. Wang Jiping, assistant vice president of IDC China, predicted that in 2018, the sales volume of China's PC market was about 52 million 100 thousand, and the annual decline of the year was 2.2%. The overall PC market is recovering in a good direction, but there are still a series of unstable factors.


Looking forward to the future development trend, IDC summed up the ten major forecasts of China's PC market in 2018.


The 1. game is still one of the most important growth exciting points in the consumer market

In 2018, the game notebook is expected to sell 4 million 700 thousand. The game desktop will increase the growth of the high-end consumer PC market. The chicken eating game represented by Jedi survival is popular. It further ignites the demand of consumers for game PC, and the consumption of PC users is becoming younger. So the game has become an important factor to drive the growth of PC market. In this, the super light game notebook and more than 6000 yuan of the game desktop will become the main highlight of the 2018.


2. different types of customers differ significantly on screen size requirements

The consumer notebook continues to transfer to 15 inch products, and the commercial notebook focuses on the 14 inch notebook, and the 21 inch is still the most important screen size of the integrated machine market. In 2018, the super thin notebook will be 13 inch, gradually to 14 inch and 15 inch transition. Because more than 90% of the original game notebook is concentrated in 15 inch products, it is expected that the consumer notebook market will continue to tilt to the 15 inch market. And commercial notebooks are still affected by the consumption habits, focusing on 14 inch products. As a result of the gradual increase in the proportion of commercial customers, the proportion of large screens over 23 inches and above will be reduced, instead, it will focus on 21 inch products.


3. super light and high performance notebook become the killer of 2018, especially the popular high performance notebook will be the new bright spot in the market

IDC believes that the light demand for products is particularly evident in Asia Pacific consumers. In 2018, with the improvement of the process, the notebook will be thinner. In the pursuit of light, consumer demand for high performance is also increasing. Super lightweight and high performance notebook will become a more reasonable choice for consumers.


The 4. retail PC market is expected to break through 50% in the fourth quarter of 2018 and the competition of the e-commerce platform is hot.

In 2017, about 43% of the PC market in China's retail PC market came to end users through e-commerce sales, and the overall e-commerce market increased by about 23% year on year. IDC believes that due to the challenges faced by the traditional IT stores, consumers will not have enough motivation to choose online channels to purchase. In 2018, the growth trend of e-commerce will continue. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2018, the total retail sales ratio will reach more than 50% in the overall retail sales. At the same time, Tmall, Suning and other e-commerce platforms will be further forced to challenge the Jingdong's hegemonic position in the PC e-commerce platform.


5. the development of the regional market is increasingly balanced, and the growth of the 1-6 level market is becoming more and more synchro

With the stability of PC popularity, the high growth stage of the 4-6 level PC market is becoming the past. The 1-6 level market will jointly enter the stable stage of growth, and the growth difference in each level will no longer be obvious. In the provinces, the Midwest is still growing faster.


6. Win10 driven commercial PC market over a small climax

Although Windows 10 has been launched for 3 years, a considerable number of customers remain on the old PC platform. As Intel Kaby Lake Platform does not support Windows 7 platform, Microsoft stops Windows 7's sales and service support in China, and commercial PC customers have to face PC update problem in China. With the China government announced the Windows10 version of the issue of government, government and large enterprises are to usher in a 10 wave of replacement Windows.


7. PC new positioning: from product, industry division to scene division

Smart phones are becoming the first smart terminal of consumers in China and in the world, and PC has been difficult to become a multi scene universal terminal. At the same time, with the advancement of digital transformation, social, large data, cloud technology and mobile are widely used in various industries. The product of the terminal class has been divided from the product of the last century in 90s to the division of the industry at the beginning of this century, and to the division of the scene today. Customers need to customize PC for a particular scene, such as educational computers, game computers, designer computers, financial computers, Internet cafes, and so on. At the same time, the content, peripherals, product design and service for special scenes are the key factors for the success of "scene PC".


8. fashion PC commercial, organic, ultra-thin notebook commercial ratio increase

Since 2015, PC fashion has been promoted by products such as deformable, ultra thin, and so on. Since 2018, more commercial customers will also be integrated into the fashion tide. IDC believes that with the increase of PC's purchase decision making power to personalization, more and more start-ups and digitalized transformation of the original generation enterprises will be more interested in buying fashionable computers such as integrated machines and ultra thin notebooks.


9. small and medium-sized brand growth slowed down, in 2018 Top5 manufacturers faced fierce competition

IDC believes that, with the growth of the PC market, the pressure of small and medium-sized brands in the market is increasing. Especially in the commercial market, the share of small and medium-sized brands is falling seriously. But in the consumer market, the upgrading of consumption makes a number of manufacturers to upgrade, have been successful in the past few years, but with the top five vendors in the market segments of the strategy to gradually put in place, in 2018 the small brand growth will continue to slow, while the Top5 manufacturers will also face a more brutal competition.


The average unit price ended in 10.2018 years, with the overall PC average unit price falling by 0.4%

In 2017, the average price of China's PC market has been improved significantly. By the three quarter of 2017, the average unit price of China's PC market increased by 21.6% year-on-year, creating the highest growth in the past 5 years. It is mainly affected by three factors: first, parts prices, leading PC manufacturers have rising prices; second, ultra light, etc. the game products accounted for improvement, the average price rose third, products; commercial and consumer customers to better performance of the product demand, high-end product market driven by rising price. IDC believes that smartphone sales are not as good as expected. Upstream is gradually reducing production of smart phones, PC accessories prices are expected to decrease, and competition between manufacturers will become more intense in 2018. The average price increase trend in 2018 is expected to gradually ease, the overall PC average unit price will decline by 0.4%.